{"id":936,"date":"2026-07-06T11:39:35","date_gmt":"2026-07-06T11:39:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/movingandmortgagehub.com\/?p=936"},"modified":"2026-07-06T11:39:35","modified_gmt":"2026-07-06T11:39:35","slug":"morally-reprehensible-prediction-markets-offer-bets-on-wildfires","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/movingandmortgagehub.com\/?p=936","title":{"rendered":"\u201cMorally reprehensible\u201d: Prediction Markets Offer Bets on Wildfires"},"content":{"rendered":"
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This story was originally published by\u00a0<\/em>High Country News\u00a0and is reproduced here as part of the\u00a0<\/em>Climate Desk\u00a0collaboration.<\/em><\/p>

Read more America\u2019s 250th Birthday Will Be a Scorcher Not All Will Survive<\/a><\/p>\n

Sylvie Andrews and<\/span> her partner didn\u2019t just lose the new house they\u2019d helped build when the Eaton Fire ripped through Altadena, California, in January 2025. They lost an entire decade\u2019s worth of sacrifices they\u2019d made to put down roots in their hometown, and the community they\u2019d created. \u201cWe put a lot of blood, sweat and tears into it,\u201d Andrews said. \u201cThat\u2019s what we lost in the fire.\u201d<\/p>\n

That fire, along with the Palisades Fire to the west, destroyed over 16,000 structures and\u00a0killed 31 people. But while Andrews and thousands of Angelinos were racing to evacuate, other people saw a financial opportunity. Using Polymarket, the world\u2019s largest prediction market platform, they made bets on the fires\u2014how they would grow, how long they would last and how much they would destroy.<\/p>\n

Prediction markets are essentially gambling websites where people bet on the outcome of events, including elections, sports, the weather and more. Anything is fair game, from oil prices and the spread of infectious diseases to international incidents. Markets usually frame questions in a \u201cyes\u201d or \u201cno\u201d fashion, with the price of a \u201ccontract\u201d fluctuating between $0 and $1. A price of 50 cents on a \u201cyes\u201d contract means that the people doing the betting collectively believe the event has a 50 percent chance of happening. Market hosts make money by charging a fee on wagers.<\/p>\n

In January 2025, Polymarket listed\u00a0almost 20\u00a0questions,\u00a0created\u00a0by the platform\u2019s \u201cmarkets team,\u201d related to the wildfires burning up Southern California.\u00a0How\u00a0many acres will the Palisades Fire burn by Friday, three days after it ignited on a Tuesday?\u00a0Will\u00a0the Palisades Fire reach Santa Monica by Sunday?\u00a0When\u00a0will the Palisades fire be 50 percent contained?\u00a0Will\u00a0the Palisades and Eaton fires be contained before February?<\/p>\n

People\u00a0spent\u00a0$1.2 million betting on these queries,\u00a0according\u00a0to\u00a0Aeon Magazine.<\/em>\u00a0\u201cWow,\u201d Andrews said repeatedly when she learned the figure. \u201cMy first take is that it\u2019s morally reprehensible,\u201d she said. \u201cThe fact that someone would feel OK doing that flabbergasts me.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cThe prediction markets are just the wild, wild West,\u201d said Susan Sherman, who grew up in the Pacific Palisades. She lost her childhood home in the Palisades Fire; her late parents had owned it since 1963, and now, it was gone. She sold the empty lot a few months ago. \u201cI look at (betting on the fires) as just being very crass and heartless.\u201d<\/p>\n

As prediction markets\u00a0boom\u00a0and a new wildfire season begins, fire survivors and ethicists say that the betting encourages and rewards callous thinking\u2014and dangerous behavior, too.\u00a0<\/p>\n

One major concern\u00a0stemming from wildfire prediction markets is arson. \u201cThat\u2019s what has me nervous,\u201d Sherman said. Theoretically, making a bet could give someone the perverse incentive to start a fire, or help one grow. Unlike other disasters, such as hurricanes, flooding or extreme heat, a fire can be manipulated in minutes by just one person. \u201cSystems that tie financial gain to wildfire outcomes risk encouraging misuse, including arson, and are not compatible with our mission,\u201d a spokesperson for the US Forest Service said.<\/p>\n

\u201cImagine what a bad actor might do,\u201d said Ann Skeet, the senior director of leadership ethics at the Markkula Center for Applied Ethics at Santa Clara University. \u201cA market that might support that kind of activity, I think, is a dangerous market.\u201d Firefighters or land managers with exclusive information about a fire\u2019s behavior or an agency\u2019s firefighting plans could even be tempted to bet on a fire, which would be considered insider trading.<\/p>\n

But the biggest dilemma is largely an ethical one. \u201cWhen you start gambling on somebody\u2019s potential death or harm, you\u2019re really diminishing the value that you\u2019re placing on human life,\u201d Skeet said.<\/p>

Read more Celebrating America Doesn\u2019t Have to Mean Erasing Our History<\/a><\/p>\n

Betting on a wildfire\u2019s <\/span>outcome\u00a0isn\u2019t just limited to general prediction market platforms anymore. This year, ahead of what\u2019s likely to be a busy fire season in the West, a new prediction market specifically focused on California fires was launched. Called\u00a0\u201cWyldfyre,\u201d it bears the tagline: \u201cYou can\u2019t predict wildfire. But you can trade on it.\u201d\u00a0High Country News\u00a0<\/em>was unable to determine the platform\u2019s owner or the owner of its website\u2019s IP address; the website is opaque, with no contact information listed.<\/p>\n

Currently, Wyldfyre users can only simulate trading, but according to the site, the ability to bet with real money is \u201ccoming soon.\u201d The platform purports to be the first prediction market of its kind, pricing county and city wildfire risk in real time. \u201cCalifornia burns. Every year. And it\u2019s getting worse. The question isn\u2019t if\u2014 it\u2019s where and when,\u201d the site reads. It includes hotspot data from NASA and National Interagency Fire Center fire perimeters to help gamblers make predictions.<\/p>\n

Proponents of prediction markets say the platforms generate useful information through crowdsourcing. Wyldfyre frames its platform as providing a public good. \u201cWyldfyre turns collective intelligence into better wildfire forecasting\u2014one trade at a time,\u201d the site reads.<\/p>\n

But entities with a real need for wildfire forecasting, including federal and state firefighting agencies, say they aren\u2019t interested in prediction market data. \u201cThe Forest Service does not use information from prediction markets for wildfire forecasting, and we do not rely on any system that treats wildfire as an event for speculation,\u201d an agency spokesperson told\u00a0High Country News. \u201c<\/em>Our priority is protecting firefighters, communities, and public lands, and our fire analysts use validated science, proven predictive tools, and data from federal partners such as the National Weather Service, NOAA, and the National Interagency Fire Center.\u201d<\/p>\n

California\u2019s state firefighting agency has a similar policy. \u201cCAL FIRE does not use prediction\u2011market-derived data in wildfire forecasting or operational decision\u2011making, nor are we currently evaluating that type of system,\u201d said Phillip SeLegue, staff chief of CAL FIRE\u2019s intelligence program.<\/p>\n

The agency uses a \u201cscientifically based fire-behavior modeling\u201d program to generate a fire-spread prediction when a 911 call for a wildfire is processed, SeLegue said. The automated program uses weather observations, forecast data, fuel and vegetation conditions, topography, location data and information on available resources. \u201cOur modeling is deterministic and physics\u2011based; it is not informed by markets, wagering systems, crowd predictions, or any other form of prediction\u2011market mechanism,\u201d SeLegue said.<\/p>\n

As prediction-market <\/span>betting\u00a0soars in popularity, politicians are beginning to try to rein it in. Representatives from Utah and California introduced federal\u00a0legislation\u00a0in March that would prohibit betting \u201crelated to terrorism, assassination, war, gaming, or illegal activity,\u201d according to a press release. A California senator introduced\u00a0companion legislation\u00a0that would also prohibit contracts about \u201can individual\u2019s death.\u201d<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, Minnesota just became the\u00a0first state\u00a0to outlaw hosting or advertising (though not betting on) prediction markets; the federal government promptly sued the state for over-stepping its authority. None of the proposed restrictions at a state or federal level explicitly include wildfire\u2014at least not yet.<\/p>\n

While state and federal governments struggle to control prediction market betting, Andrews has an idea. \u201cIf someone won money in gambling with our fate, I would hope that they might be ashamed of themselves,\u201d she said, \u201cand take that money and donate it directly to fire survivors.\u201d<\/p>

Read more The Army Took Down Its Page Commemorating a Civil Rights Icon<\/a><\/p>\n<\/article>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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