{"id":816,"date":"2026-06-29T11:35:16","date_gmt":"2026-06-29T11:35:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/movingandmortgagehub.com\/?p=816"},"modified":"2026-06-29T11:35:16","modified_gmt":"2026-06-29T11:35:16","slug":"our-climate-models-are-missing-something-crucial","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/movingandmortgagehub.com\/?p=816","title":{"rendered":"Our Climate Models Are Missing Something Crucial"},"content":{"rendered":"
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This story was originally published b<\/em>yYale e360\u00a0and is reproduced here as part of the\u00a0<\/em>Climate Desk\u00a0collaboration<\/em>.<\/p>

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For decades,<\/span> climate scientists have issued warnings about positive global warming feedbacks, vicious cycles in the Earth system in which rising temperatures from burning fossil fuels beget more warming. The best tools we have to understand these feedback mechanisms are climate models, which simulate how the atmosphere, oceans, and land will respond under different emissions scenarios. Many feedbacks, like the loss of sea ice as the planet warms, are well-accounted for. Others, such as changes in cloud cover, remain far more uncertain but are still included in models. Feedbacks in which ecosystems emit more greenhouse gases to the atmosphere are so complex that they are often left out entirely.<\/p>\n

For example, how much more carbon dioxide will be emitted as wildfires increase? How much more methane will bubble up from fermenting wetlands or seep from thawing permafrost? Remarkably,\u00a0these so-called warming-induced emissions are poorly represented or absent from the most\u00a0influential climate models\u2014that is, those that inform the assessments of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).<\/p>\n

A new\u00a0study\u00a0from a group of leading climate researchers suggests this information gap could make it even more difficult for nations to limit the rise in global average temperatures to well below 2 degrees C, the target set by the Paris Climate Agreement.\u00a0The study found that emissions from natural systems could add as much as 0.6 degrees C to the rise in global average temperatures. That\u2019s in line with earlier\u00a0work\u00a0that suggests such emissions could shorten by 25 percent the amount of time it takes to exceed 2 degrees C of warming. Shortcomings in climate modeling, scientists warn, could lead countries to overestimate how much fossil fuels can be burned before breaching climate targets.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf you\u2019re not including all the emissions going into the atmosphere, you\u2019re hamstrung from the get-go,\u201d says\u00a0Brian Buma, a climate scientist at the Environmental Defense Fund. \u201cPeople are recognizing that the longer we go without taking these emissions into\u00a0account,\u00a0there\u2019s just going to be a bigger gap.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cFour decades ago, the scientific community was saying we think there are going to be these surprises in the Earth system as the planet warms,\u201d says Benjamin Poulter, the lead scientist at Spark Climate Solutions, a San Francisco-based nonprofit that aims to identify climate \u201cblind spots,\u201d include them in policy frameworks, and assess the best way to deal with them. \u201cNow, we\u2019re starting to see these feedbacks become the reality.\u201d<\/p>\n

The biggest sources of warming-induced emissions are wildfires, wetlands, and permafrost\u2014all of which have shown recent indications of rapid change. Since 2001, global carbon emissions from wildfires have\u00a0increased\u00a0by 60 percent. In 2020, researchers reported an\u00a0alarming spike\u00a0in the concentration of methane in the atmosphere, attributed partly to wetter conditions expanding wetlands in Africa and Asia and partly to warming temperatures, which accelerate the rate at which plants decompose in water.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Colder regions are seeing some of the fastest shifts: The 2024 Arctic\u00a0report card\u00a0found that wildfires and permafrost melt have caused the northern tundra to become a source of emissions, after acting as a sink for millennia. Hotter, drier conditions fuel Arctic wildfires, while thawing ice allows microbes to more rapidly decompose soil organic matter, releasing both CO2 and methane.<\/p>\n

Those regional changes add up to global trends. In 2023 and again in 2024, record heat reduced the land carbon sink\u2014the difference between the amount of CO2 emitted and the amount of CO2 absorbed by all terrestrial ecosystems\u2014and contributed to a record\u00a0jump\u00a0in atmospheric CO2 concentrations. In 2025, the land sink appears to have\u00a0recovered\u00a0to its previous strength, although tropical forests in Southeast Asia and South America flipped from sink to source due to deforestation, wildfires, and more decomposition.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Like 2023 and 2024, 2026 will be an El Ni\u00f1o year, with elevated Pacific Ocean surface temperatures that are expected to boost global temperatures. These events are\u00a0associated\u00a0with hot, dry conditions in the Amazon, which can amplify wildfires and weaken the region\u2019s carbon sink. The heat can also slow photosynthesis and increase the rate of decomposition in other tropical ecosystems.<\/p>\n

Researchers are alarmed by these changes. \u201cWe\u2019ve been worried about this for a long time,\u201d says Rob Jackson, an environmental scientist at Stanford University and the chair of\u00a0the Global Carbon Project, an international consortium of researchers tracking flows of carbon through Earth systems. Yet climate models have largely set the problem of warming-induced emissions aside: Of the 11 Earth system models used in the most recent IPCC assessment, none included warming-induced emissions from all of the main sources\u2014wildfire, wetlands, and permafrost. Five included wildfire; just two included permafrost.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s largely because of the difficulty of the problem: The scientific challenge amounts to predicting the response of every ecosystem on Earth to warming temperatures. \u201cIt adds computational processing time, complexity, and there\u2019s no good agreement about how to represent wetland emissions, permafrost, wildfire,\u201d says Poulter. Modeling all of these emissions requires simulating diverse, nonlinear processes that behave in ways that can be difficult to predict. The basic modeling challenges are exacerbated, experts say, by a lack of monitoring in hard-to-access ecosystems, from Siberia to the Congo basin.<\/p>\n

Just how much warming might be missing from the picture? In the new study, Poulter and a group of colleagues from leading climate modeling groups used a simplified climate model to estimate the volume of emissions that might be expected from these sources under a range of scenarios, using past estimates of the scale of the feedback for each source of warming-induced emissions. They then modeled how much those emissions would raise temperatures on top of the contribution from human emissions.<\/p>\n

If humans quickly rein in their emissions, the researchers found, emissions from forests, wetlands, and other ecosystems might amount to anywhere between zero additional degrees and 0.4 additional degrees C this century, an amount that would accelerate warming due to human emissions by up to 60 percent. <\/p>

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Under a more pessimistic scenario, in which human emissions peak around 2060 and then decline, they found emissions from ecosystems could raise temperatures from between 0.2 to 0.6 degrees C. The lion\u2019s share of the uncertainty stemmed from how researchers estimated ecosystems would respond to warming, rather than from the choice of warming scenario or any inherent ambiguities in the models.<\/p>\n

Keeping the rise in average global temperatures well below 2 degrees C is already a huge challenge.\u00a0\u201cSomething like these warming-induced emissions makes that harder,\u201d says Chris Jones, a climate scientist at the UK Met Office working to integrate these emissions into climate models. Warming feedbacks could also add to the danger of overshooting Paris Agreement goals, given that they may not be reversible, he says. While a coal-fired power plant can be replaced with renewables, he explains, melting permafrost will continue to melt after a certain amount of warming.\u00a0<\/p>\n

To put the scale of the problem into perspective, the researchers estimated that by 2100, the annual contribution of warming-induced CO2 emissions could be equivalent to those from today\u2019s power and building sectors, which together make up about half of global CO2 emissions due to direct human activities. Warming-induced methane emissions could be almost equivalent to today\u2019s annual fossil methane emissions from Asia and North America combined, they found.<\/p>\n

Now that the signal of these emissions has emerged, researchers say it is essential to get a better grip on how they work and what they mean for the future of the climate, and to get countries to start counting them. \u201cWe can quantify and measure these emissions, but then we also need to develop an accounting framework so that we can do something about them,\u201d says Poulter.<\/p>\n

Since launching last fall, Spark\u2019s\u00a0program\u00a0on warming-induced emissions has connected more than 20 independent modeling groups from around the world to add those emissions to models, improve measurements, and explore ways to potentially reduce those emissions. \u201cThere\u2019s a community of people now that are building this field,\u201d says Poulter. Their aim is to make robust projections that can be used in the next IPCC climate assessment and thus play a role in global climate policy. <\/p>\n

Work on the assessment is already underway, with a final report due by late 2029. The modeling work also feeds into efforts to improve measurements of ecosystems\u2014to understand how they are changing and what role warming is playing. Modelers can identify gaps in observations and make decisions about where limited resources should be placed.<\/p>\n

One of the first projects coordinated through Spark\u2019s warming-induced emissions campaign is the installation, by a team at the University of California, Los Angeles, of dozens of methane sensors at wetlands in central Africa, which are known to be\u00a0major emitters\u00a0of methane. Another measurement effort led by Jackson focuses on improving measurements of wetland emissions in the Amazon. In both regions, Jackson says there is a lack of data on baseline CO2 and methane emissions, which are essential to making reliable future projections. This also makes it challenging to know what is driving the change in emissions: Is it wetlands growing with more precipitation, or is it a warming-induced increase in microbial respiration, or other factors?<\/p>\n

Unlike a leaky natural gas well, Jackson says, \u201cyou can\u2019t turn a wrench on a wetland.\u201d But there are ways that warming-induced emissions might be addressed directly.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Bronson Griscom, an ecologist and founder of a natural climate solutions company called Ceiba Earth, sorts ideas for addressing warming-induced emissions into three buckets. The first promotes the continuation of projects that will work even as temperatures rise. For example, reforestation efforts in temperate woodlands might actually see\u00a0more growth\u00a0and therefore more carbon storage with elevated CO2. Fuel reduction efforts, such as thinning and conducting controlled burns, will also reduce emissions.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The second bucket contains tweaks to existing projects to account for future warming. Teams working on restoration in the Amazon, for example, might consider picking tree species that are more resilient to hotter temperatures, says Griscom, something researchers are already\u00a0experimenting\u00a0with.<\/p>\n

The third bucket of ideas addresses warming-induced emissions directly.\u00a0In the Arctic, Cansu Culha, an adjunct professor at the University of British Columbia, is looking to slow the melting of permafrost by applying insulating \u201cblankets\u201d of vegetation to permafrost slumps, where the land is releasing carbon most rapidly. Jackson and other researchers have considered ways to manage wetlands to reduce the amount of methane they generate by changing cycles of wetting and rewetting, altering water chemistry to influence microbial activity, or reconnecting them with seawater. Managing a natural wetland in this way is complicated and controversial, but some of the approaches have been\u00a0tested\u00a0with success in rice paddies\u2014another major source of methane.<\/p>\n

Researchers and policymakers who are trying to tackle emissions say they would benefit from a clearer picture of feedback mechanisms as the signal of warming-induced emissions begins to emerge from the noise. \u201cPeople are seeing this stuff happening,\u201d says Buma. \u201cIt\u2019s in front of their eyes.\u201d Climate modelers are scrambling to catch up.<\/p>

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They don\u2019t properly account for growing natural emissions from wetlands, wildfires and permafrost melt.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":814,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-816","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-environment"],"yoast_head":"\nOur Climate Models Are Missing Something Crucial - Moving and Mortgage Hub<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/movingandmortgagehub.com\/?p=816\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Our Climate Models Are Missing Something Crucial - Moving and Mortgage Hub\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"They don\u2019t properly account for growing natural emissions from wetlands, wildfires and permafrost melt.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/movingandmortgagehub.com\/?p=816\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Moving and Mortgage Hub\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-06-29T11:35:16+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/movingandmortgagehub.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/886a3d004cca166a32b5353c8eb27b18-1024x575.webp\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1024\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"575\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/webp\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"9 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/movingandmortgagehub.com\\\/?p=816#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/movingandmortgagehub.com\\\/?p=816\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"admin\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/movingandmortgagehub.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/6b7c79bcfd888d98f34c5413df7e81a2\"},\"headline\":\"Our Climate Models Are Missing Something Crucial\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-06-29T11:35:16+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/movingandmortgagehub.com\\\/?p=816\"},\"wordCount\":1899,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/movingandmortgagehub.com\\\/?p=816#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/movingandmortgagehub.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/06\\\/a35c28afa4a9c5f75b483829dfc31d33.webp\",\"articleSection\":[\"Environment\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/movingandmortgagehub.com\\\/?p=816#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/movingandmortgagehub.com\\\/?p=816\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/movingandmortgagehub.com\\\/?p=816\",\"name\":\"Our Climate Models Are Missing Something Crucial - 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